PLOS Medicine

Abstract Introduction Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an important complication of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Current incident CVD-prediction models use single baseline measurements and achieve moderate performance in people with T2D, with C-indices around 0.7. Modern healthcare registries contain repeated measurements of HbA1c, LDL-cholesterol and eGFR, which could carry incremental predictive value. However, the added value of trajectory measures for CVD-risk prediction remains unclear. We aimed t...

OBJECTIVEUsing two cohorts and synthetic datasets, we estimated effects of prospectively reported alcohol use on memory outcomes across middle age. METHODSData were from National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979 (NLSY79, n=7540, alcohol reports from ages 18-26), Health and Retirement Study (HRS age 50-56 at enrollment, n=13,090), and a synthetic cohort matching early life exposure information from 3,259 NLSY79 participants to later life memory information from 5,451 HRS participants. Covariate-...

Objective To test the effectiveness of a postpartum behavioural intervention delivered by automated text messaging in reducing weight. Design Two parallel group, multicentre, randomised controlled trial. Setting Recruitment from five areas across the United Kingdom (Belfast, Bradford, Stirling, London and Cardiff) through healthcare and community pathways, including social media. Participants A diverse sample of 892 women between 6 weeks and 24 months postpartum, aged 18 years or more and with a...

ObjectivesTo estimate potential launch prices of generic semaglutide following patent expiry from 2026 and to quantify the global obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) burden in countries where generic access may become possible. MethodsWe used World Bank population data and World Obesity and Diabetes Atlas prevalence estimates to calculate obesity and T2DM burden in countries where semaglutide patents expire in 2026 or were not filed. Patent status was identified using MedsPaL and cross-checked w...

Background Acute malnutrition remains a major public health challenge among children under five in Malawi due to undetected and untreated cases. While several policies and programmes are in place, they face significant resource input and implementation constraints. In this study, we evaluate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of three interventions designed to address constraints along the care pathway in childhood acute malnutrition management. These include improving early reco...

Background and aimsPopulation screening for liver disease in high-risk groups is recommended. Community diagnosis of liver disease is a challenge due to the asymptomatic nature of disease until very advanced stages. Moreover, regional variation in testing availability can result in people with clinically significant liver disease being missed. Machine learning (ML) has been proposed as a method to reduce diagnostic error and automate screening. We present a novel machine learning derived algorit...

BackgroundIn trials, three-month weekly rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP) showed higher adherence and completion than the six-month daily isoniazid (6H) regimen for TB preventive treatment (TPT). However, programmatic outcome data remain limited. MethodologyWe evaluated the TPT cascade among people with HIV (PWH) aged >15 years newly enrolled in HIV care in western Kenya. Initiation and completion of 6H (Jan to Sept 2022) were compared to 3HP (Oct 2022-Sept 2023) using Chi-square tests. Correlate...

BackgroundPacked lunches are a common feature of early childhood food provision, yet evidence describing their nutritional composition in early years settings remains limited. Understanding the foods provided during this developmental period is important, given the potential influence of early dietary exposures on later health. AimTo characterise the composition, nutritional quality, cost, and dietary patterns of packed lunches brought from home in Early Childhood Education and Care settings, a...

Introduction: Neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) including Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), multiple sclerosis (MS), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and non-AD dementias share chronic neuroinflammatory mechanisms that contribute to neuronal injury and disease progression. While anti-inflammatory therapies (AITs) are associated with reduced neurodegenerative disease risk, knowledge regarding the impact of biological sex and treatment duration across multiple NDDs remains li...

BackgroundMaternal immunization (MI) can prevent major infectious diseases in mothers and children by boosting the immunity of pregnant women. Antenatal care (ANC) delivery platforms could be leveraged to effectively provide MI. Adding MIs into ANC could potentially enhance ANC services, positively influencing both maternal and infant health outcomes and yielding broader benefits. We model these potential ANC-mediated health benefits in five low- and middle-income countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Ken...

Objective: Minimum unit pricing (MUP) aims to reduce use of cheap, high strength alcoholic beverages that drive harm, yet concerns remain about inequitable effects for structurally vulnerable groups. As part of the Costs, Harms, Expenditures and Alcohol Prices (CHEAP) study, we linked individual-level, product-specific alcohol consumption data from a customized survey with provincial retail price data to estimate prices per standard drink (PPSD) and examine their association with alcohol-related...

BackgroundTwo RSV immunisations products: a maternal vaccine, Abrysvo, and a long-acting monoclonal antibody, nirsevimab, both designed to prevent RSV illness in infants, have recently become available. Modelling evidence is required to inform how to optimally use these products in immunisation programs to reduce the burden of RSV in young children. MethodsWe extend a dynamic transmission model calibrated to RSV-hospitalisation data of children aged < 5 years in temperate Western Australia (WA)...

BackgroundInhaled combusted cannabis and co-use of combusted cannabis and nicotine electronic cigarettes (nECIGs) are on the rise, yet their long-term cardiovascular risk is unclear due to the high prevalence of confounders in observational human studies. Using primary plasma and monocytes and a novel ex vivo mechanistic model of two early steps in atherogenesis, this study examined whether chronic combusted cannabis use is associated with atherogenic changes, as estimated by 1) monocyte transen...

Suicide is one of the worlds leading public health problems, with more than 720,000 deaths annually. Suicide has traditionally been studied from an individual perspective. However, research has increasingly highlighted the influence of community-level factors on suicide risk. This study aimed to (1) analyse the spatial distribution of suicide mortality at the provincial level in Spain (2018-2022); (2) perform stratified analyses by sex and age group; and (3) compare suicide risk across differen...

BackgroundMycoplasma genitalium (MG) is an emerging sexually transmitted infection (STI) associated with pelvic inflammatory disease and tubal factor infertility. Its relationship with impaired fecundity remains unclear and is rarely examined in the context of co-seropositivity with other STIs. MethodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction (EAGeR) trial, a prospective preconception cohort of women with proven fecundity and prior pregnancy loss....

Background Antibiotic pricing is a key determinant of access and stewardship in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet empirical evidence on how prices are formed within pharmaceutical markets remains limited. However, there is little longitudinal evidence on how antibiotic prices behave within national pharmaceutical supply systems. This study evaluated the patterns and determinants of systemic antibiotic pricing in Tanzania using national regulatory import permit data. Methods We conduc...

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is an acute inflammatory liver disease caused not only by prescription and over-the-counter medications but also by health foods and dietary supplements. Typically, DILI patients recover once the causative substance is identified and discontinued. In contrast, autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) results from the immune-mediated destruction of hepatocytes due to a breakdown of self-tolerance mechanisms. Patients presenting with acute-onset AIH often lack characteristic cli...

ObjectiveCongenital syphilis remains a preventable cause of fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, despite the availability of inexpensive diagnostics and effective treatment. We aimed to evaluate the maternal and congenital syphilis burden at the Instituto Nacional Materno Perinatal, Perus national referral center for maternal and perinatal care. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of aggregated, de-identified surveillance data from January 2023 to December 2025. Maternal prevale...

BackgroundThis study of Malawian children with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) sought to detect demographic, clinical, and echocardiographic risk factors for mortality. MethodsPediatric patients with RHD were recruited from March to October, 2018 from clinic rosters and inpatient consults in Lilongwe and Blantyre, Malawi. An echocardiogram was performed upon study enrollment. Cox regression analyses were performed to assess for factors associated with mortality over nearly 2 years of follow-up. ...

BackgroundRising kidney discard rates and uncertainty around accepting higher risk donor kidneys highlight the need for decision support tools that integrate donor and recipient factors and communicate risk in ways that are understandable and usable at the time of offer. Conventional indices (e.g., KDPI/KDRI) provide population level signals but do not deliver individualized, cognitively accessible information aligned with real time clinical workflows. ObjectiveTo describe how key transplant st...